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SYRIA-TURKEY: RUSSIA PONDERS THE RE-DEPLOYMENT OF MILITARY POLICE IN AFRIN.

3/1/2018

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In order to limit the negative fall-out of the Turkish invasion in Afrin, and to ease tensions between nominally allies Turkey and Syria, Russia is thinking to send back the military police forces withdrawn at the beginning of the Turkish offensive.
The month-long Turkish operation in Afrin-province has not fully rendered the hoped-for result (mostly due to fierce Kurdish resistance) and has raised tensions between Syria and Turkey. A re-deployment of Russian military police-forces would be a way for Russia to hopefully avoid escalation and to stop a Turkish attack on Afrin city.
That Russia is clearly worried about developments since Turkey started its invasion a month ago is obvious. The escalated conflict between Syria and Turkey endangers Russia’s long-term goals in Syria and also threaten to push the Kurds away from Russia and closer to the US.
After more than a month of fighting, Turkey has now managed to create a buffer-zone along the border. A corridor connecting Afrin with Turkey-supported rebels in Idlib has also been established. Both areas are staffed with Turkish special police forces and by all accounts, these forces are there for the long haul.
Russia withdrew its police forces shortly before the Turkish offensive easing the way for Turkey and the whole operation was done in collusion with Russia.
Now, however, Russia (whose aims are simply to keep having access to their bases in Syria, regardless of who is in power) is belatedly realizing that Turkish (and Iranian) aims are not necessarily compatible with what Moscow wants. Putting a lid on the Turkish military offensive by re-deploying police-forces between Turkey and the Kurds is an attempt to rein in Turkish ambitions and avoid further clashes between Turkey and Syrian Kurdish forces.
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